It is highly unlikely that a President Clinton or Obama would “completely renegotiated” NAFTA, as reopening the treaty would give Canada the opportunity to renegotiate NAFTA’s energy provisions, potentially reducing Canadian exports of oil and natural gas to the United States. Despite the Democrat’s supposed disdain of President Bush’s policies, it is unlikely that a Democratic president would do anything contrary to the Bush-Cheney doctrine of considering Canada as a secure and reliable energy provider.

Submitted to Globe and Mail 27 February 2008. Unpublished.